It’s Fed versus market as traders bet balance sheet slows hiking

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Over the past 7 years, we as well as others (if not those who believe in magic money trees, or managing other people’s money while blogging) have repeatedly said that when it comes to "market" returns, look no further than the size of the Fed’s balance sheet – the single best indictor of where the S&P500 is headed to next.

Fed’s balance-sheet unwind will be moment of truth for financial markets. This shortsighted behavior is especially acute in the stock market. equity traders look daily for clues to the fate.

The Fed is confident in the economy now, but by next year it may have to slow interest rate hikes and stop paring back its balance sheet, that the economy and markets could respond to, including a rising dollar, the potential negative impact of trade wars and the drying up of liquidity as the Fed hikes rates.

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Interest rate futures show traders are currently betting the Fed won’t raise rates at all next year. After weeks of market volatility and calls by President Donald Trump for the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates, the US central bank instead did it again, and stuck by a plan to keep withdrawing support from an economy it views as strong.

Former Fannie exec to lead Flagstar lending unit Prepayments pour in ahead of spring buying season, delinquencies drop Regarding delinquencies, 90-day delinquencies increased to $52 million or 0.73% of the Farm & Ranch portfolio in first quarter 2019 compared to $27 million or 0.37% as of year-end 2018 and $48.Lenders tap their market know-how to save money on facilities Dems press HUD nominee on proposed budget cuts Senate Democrats Target Trump’s Proposed HUD Budget Cuts Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is the ranking member on the Senate Banking, Housing, and urban affairs committee. (Rob Kunzig/Morning Consult)